全球经济

Formax: 12月将至美联储加息或成“谜”

Published:2016-10-18 10:08:04

周一市场整体较平静,并无突发事件。美元指数在连续走高的情况下出现回落,最低下探97.88附近。而美元回落并未影响贵金属市场整体走势。黄金依然处于低位区间整理,方向并不明确。国际油价也依然在50附近震荡等待时机。

基本面消息周一美盘时段美联储公布了美国9月生产月率。具体数据显示,美国9月工业生产较前月增长0.1%,预期为增长0.1%;美国9月产能利用率为75.4%,预期为75.6%;美国9月制造业产出较前月增长0.2%,与预期持平。由于数据整体表现较疲软,连续走高的美元指数受到承压。

除数据外,昨晚美联储副主席费希尔的讲话颇受市场关注。费希尔表示,金融稳定是我们所考虑的重要因素,低利率可能威胁金融稳定;与此同时,更低的利率趋势或者意味着经济衰退的加深,令美联储政策面临更大难度。此外,费希尔不支持上调美联储的通胀目标,他认为这将损及政策架构,不希望把现行架构搞乱。虽然不确定进一步的通胀是否会对消费者产生负面影响,但费希尔预计,只有通胀上涨,薪资水平也才会上升。另外,费希尔认为当前美国经济缺乏的是增长率,导致中性利率偏低有多个因素,包括经济增长潜力、人口老龄化、缓慢的生产率和投资以及海外缓慢的经济增速。美国并未处于必须实施负利率的"临界点",以近零利率运行可能破坏信心。

Formax分析师认为由于美联储副主席费希尔此前多次发表加息鹰派言论,而此次讲话指出加息受多个中性利率偏低的影响,破使美元指数形成由涨转跌的走势,使得美联储12月加息再度成"谜"。

 

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